Global Logistics Market Update – Navigating Q4 2025 and the Outlook for Spring 2026

Executive Summary

• Fragile Stability Defines the Market: The European logistics market in Q4 2025 is characterized by sluggish economic growth, creating a complex environment. While this weak demand backdrop presents procurement opportunities, it masks significant underlying volatility and structural risks that require careful management.
• Ocean Freight in a Buyer’s Market: Despite a temporary, carrier-induced rate spike in October, the ocean freight sector remains fundamentally oversupplied. This presents a strategic window for shippers to negotiate favorable long-term contract rates for 2026 while leveraging a soft spot market.
• Air Freight Market Divergence: A clear market bifurcation is underway. US trade policy changes are redirecting e-commerce volumes from Asia to Europe, creating capacity pressure and firm rates on this key import lane. In contrast, Transatlantic and intra-European routes remain soft, offering competitive pricing opportunities.
• Road Transport’s Looming Capacity Crisis: Subdued industrial demand is currently keeping a lid on European road freight rates. However, an unresolved and worsening structural driver shortage, coupled with rising operational costs, represents a major inflationary risk that will materialize as soon as demand recovers.
• Headwinds for Finnish Trade: While Finland’s year-to-date trade figures show resilience, recent monthly data indicates a slowdown, particularly in exports to key European markets. This necessitates a proactive focus on cost management, supply chain diversification, and tapping into the strong Nordic e-commerce sector.
• Strategic Imperative for Buyers: Procurement strategies must evolve beyond pure cost-cutting. The focus for 2026 should be on a balanced approach: securing favorable long-term rates for core volumes while building in contractual flexibility to mitigate the high risk of volatility and disruption.

The Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Backdrop: A Landscape of Caution

The global economic environment that dictates freight demand is one of fragile and slowing growth, with persistent geopolitical tensions and an uncertain trade policy landscape creating significant headwinds. For logistics buyers, this translates into an environment where risk management is as critical as cost management.

Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with organizations like the IMF noting that prospects “remain dim”. The Eurozone, a critical destination for Finnish exports, is a focal point of this weakness, with its GDP growth forecast to slow from an already modest 1.2% in 2025 to just 1.0% in 2026. This directly constrains demand within Finland’s primary trading bloc. 

Industrial indicators paint a complex picture. While the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI® Output Index rose to a 16-month high of 51.2 in September, signaling a slight expansion, the underlying data reveals weakness. This growth is described as “muted” and is largely driven by firms clearing old backlogs rather than fulfilling strong new orders. Critically, new export orders have now been contracting for over three years, pointing to a lack of robust external demand. 

This weak demand is complicated by a new and challenging tariff environment. A US-EU agreement implemented in September 2025 established a 15% tariff on most EU goods, introducing new costs and complexity into Transatlantic supply chains. This is compounded by persistent geopolitical hotspots, such as the conflict in Ukraine, which continues to create energy price volatility and logistics bottlenecks in Eastern Europe. This combination of stagnant demand and high uncertainty creates a market highly vulnerable to shocks, where a sudden geopolitical event or new policy could quickly alter freight market dynamics. 

Ocean Freight: A Fleeting Rebound in a Buyer’s Market

The ocean freight market remains fundamentally defined by systemic overcapacity, a result of a massive influx of new vessel deliveries meeting weak global demand. However, recent events have demonstrated that carriers can and will engineer short-term rate increases through aggressive capacity management, creating a volatile spot market. For procurement professionals negotiating long-term agreements, the underlying reality remains a buyer’s market.

After 17 consecutive weeks of decline, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased by 2% to $1,687 per 40ft container in mid-October. This was not a demand-driven recovery but a direct result of carrier actions. The Far East to North Europe trade lane saw the most significant jump, with Xeneta reporting a 13.9% weekly increase to $1,896/FEU, while Drewry recorded a 6% rise on the Shanghai-Rotterdam lane to $1,669/FEU.

These increases were directly linked to carriers introducing new General Rate Increases (GRIs) and Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates around October 15th. This was supported by significant capacity withdrawals; Xeneta analysis shows carriers cut available capacity from the Far East to North Europe by 13% since late August, while Drewry’s tracker noted that 7% of scheduled sailings on key East-West routes were blanked for the late October to mid-November period. Analysts widely expect this momentum to be “short-lived,” with forecasts pointing to a weakening supply-demand balance and a return to rate contraction as the fundamental overcapacity reasserts itself.

Buyer Implications

• Leverage the Buyer’s Market for 2026 Contracts: Do not be misled by short-term spot market volatility. The underlying overcapacity creates a strong negotiating position for annual contracts. Shippers are firmly in the “driving seat” to secure favorable terms.
• Adopt a Hybrid Spot/Contract Strategy: For predictable cargo volumes, use the low baseline to lock in favorable long-term rates. For more variable volumes, maintain flexibility to access the spot market, which is expected to remain soft and decline between carrier-induced GRI attempts.
• Monitor New Alliance Performance: The major alliance reshuffles of 2025, including the formation of Gemini Cooperation and the Premier Alliance, are now operational. Beyond price, procurement decisions should be informed by close monitoring of the schedule reliability and service quality of these new networks.

Air Freight: E-commerce Flows Reshape a Two-Tier Market

The global air freight market appears stable at a headline level, but this masks a significant and growing divergence between key trade lanes. Changes in US trade policy are redirecting vast e-commerce volumes from China away from the Transpacific and towards Europe. This is creating a “two-tier” market: one that is firm and capacity-constrained on the critical Asia-Europe import route, and another that is soft and competitive on most other lanes, including the Transatlantic.

The overall Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) has been relatively steady, registering a modest 1.2% decline in mid-October to an index value of 2053. However, this top-line stability is propped up entirely by strong performance on Asian outbound routes. The Hong Kong (BAI30) and Shanghai (BAI80) outbound indices have remained firm, with the Shanghai-to-Europe lane (BAI81) being a standout performer, rising 7.47% month-on-month in September.

The primary driver of this strength is the redirection of e-commerce flows following the suspension of the US “de minimis” rule for low-value shipments. This policy change has prompted shippers to find “tariff workarounds” by routing small parcel cargo through Europe, creating a surge in demand on this lane. In contrast, outbound routes from Europe and the US are soft. The Frankfurt outbound index (BAI20) fell by 7.11% in September, reflecting weaker industrial demand and the tactical redeployment of aircraft by carriers to the more profitable Asia-Europe routes.

Buyer Implications

• Secure Asia-Europe Capacity Early: For all imports from Asia to Finland and the rest of Europe, the market is tightening. Do not assume global softness applies to this critical lane. Engage with forwarders now to secure Block Space Agreements (BSAs) for predictable volumes, especially ahead of the Q1 2026 pre-Chinese New Year period.
• Negotiate Competitively on Other Lanes: For exports from Europe to North America and for intra-European movements, the market is soft. This presents an opportunity to negotiate favorable rates, as carriers are competing for volume on these weaker lanes.
• Evaluate Sea-Air Solutions: Given the high cost and potential capacity constraints on direct Asia-Europe air freight, sea-air services via hubs like Dubai offer a cost-effective alternative that balances transit time and price, particularly for less time-critical goods.

European Road Transport: A Market Defined by a Structural Crisis

The European road freight market is facing a fundamental conflict. On one hand, weak industrial and consumer demand is currently suppressing freight rates. On the other, a severe and structural driver shortage, combined with a rising cost base for operators, is building immense inflationary pressure that will inevitably be passed on to shippers as soon as demand recovers.

In Q3 2025, European spot and contract road freight rates converged at an index level of 132.2, with spot rates falling to their lowest point since the end of 2023. This softness is a direct consequence of weak demand across the continent. However, this temporary rate stability masks a critical underlying risk: the driver shortage crisis.

The number of unfilled truck driver positions in Europe has surged to 426,000. The problem is demographic and structural; over 30% of Europe’s drivers are over the age of 55, while the share of drivers under 25 is critically low—just 2.6% in Germany, for example. With 17% of the current driver workforce expected to retire by 2029, the available pool of labor is shrinking rapidly.

Simultaneously, the cost base for carriers is elevated and continues to rise. Driver wages remain a strong cost driver, with EU transport employees seeing a 4.5% year-on-year pay increase in Q1 2025. Furthermore, new carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and updated national road tolls are adding direct costs that are being passed on to customers. When even a modest demand recovery occurs, the market will quickly hit a “capacity cliff” where there are not enough drivers to operate the available trucks, leading to a sharp and sudden spike in rates.

Buyer Implications

• Prioritize Strategic Carrier Partnerships: In this environment, securing reliable capacity for the future is more important than securing the lowest possible price today. Move beyond purely transactional relationships and work with core carriers to provide them with predictable volumes and fair terms to become a “shipper of choice.”
• Budget for Cost Inflation in 2026: The current rate environment is temporary. Procurement teams must factor in higher road freight costs for 2026 budgets, driven by the inevitable impact of rising wages, fuel volatility, and regulatory tolls.
• Improve Operational Efficiency: A primary complaint from drivers is excessive waiting time at loading and unloading sites. Improving your own dock and warehouse efficiency not only reduces costs but also makes you a more attractive customer for carriers, which will be a crucial advantage when capacity tightens.

The Finnish & Nordic Perspective: Local Headwinds in a Resilient Region

Finnish foreign trade, while resilient for most of 2025, is now showing signs of weakness that reflect the broader European economic slowdown. For Finnish businesses, navigating this period requires a sharp focus on cost control and supply chain efficiency, alongside leveraging the opportunities presented by the robust Nordic regional market.

Preliminary data for August 2025 from Finnish Customs (Tulli) reveals a concerning downturn. The value of Finnish exports decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, with export volume falling by 4.9%. This decline was driven by falling shipments to key trading partners, including Germany (-4.4%), Sweden (-7.2%), and the United States (-40.5%), directly linking the Finnish export slowdown to economic weakness in its main markets. Despite this, the year-to-date picture for January-August 2025 remains positive, with a cumulative trade surplus of €315 million, indicating that a strong start to the year is now being eroded.

In contrast to the broader European picture, the Nordic logistics market remains a source of strength, projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.74% through 2030. This growth is fueled by massive infrastructure investments and a booming e-commerce market, where over 80% of Nordic consumers shop online monthly. Sustainability is another key driver, with initiatives like the Finland-Estonia “green shipping corridor” shaping regional logistics standards.

Buyer Implications

• Diversify Export Markets: The heavy reliance on a slowing German economy represents a key risk for Finnish exporters. Exploring opportunities in more resilient or faster-growing markets should be a strategic priority.
• Optimize for Nordic E-commerce: The Nordic region is a strong and growing consumer market. For businesses in the B2C space, optimizing logistics for this region—understanding local preferences for delivery points (such as parcel lockers in Finland), payment methods, and returns processes—is a major opportunity.
• Align with Regional Sustainability Goals: When selecting logistics partners for Nordic distribution, prioritize those with strong, demonstrable sustainability credentials. This is increasingly becoming a commercial and regulatory requirement for doing business in the region.

Looking Ahead to Spring 2026: Key Scenarios and Mitigation

As procurement managers plan for the first half of 2026, a proactive, scenario-based approach is essential to mitigate risk. The following three scenarios represent high-probability challenges that require strategic preparation.

Ocean Rate Whiplash: Emboldened by their success in Q4 2025, ocean carriers coordinate a series of aggressive blank sailings and GRIs ahead of Chinese New Year. Combined with a seasonal demand increase, this causes spot rates on the Far East-Europe lane to spike by 30-40% in a short period.

• • Mitigation: Utilize the current buyer’s market to lock in a significant portion of your 2026 volume under a long-term contract with predictable rates, insulating your core business from the spot market spike.

Air Freight Capacity Squeeze on Asia-Europe: The redirected e-commerce wave from Asia to Europe intensifies after the holiday season. A major new consumer product launch adds to the demand pressure. The market tightens significantly, spot rates surge, and lead times extend as cargo is rolled over.

• Mitigation: Do not wait for the peak to secure capacity for critical shipments. Immediately engage with your logistics partner to explore Block Space Agreements (BSAs) that guarantee capacity and fix rates. Develop and test sea-air service lanes as a viable backup option.

Road Freight Cost Shock: A cold winter in Europe, combined with geopolitical tensions, causes a sudden 15-20% spike in diesel prices. Simultaneously, several mid-sized European hauliers go bankrupt, taking essential driver capacity out of the market just as spring volumes begin to recover. Carriers are forced to implement emergency fuel and capacity surcharges.

• Mitigation: Strengthen partnerships with financially sound, large-scale carriers. Diversify your carrier base to avoid over-reliance on a single provider. Analyze the potential of intermodal transport (rail and short-sea) for longer haul lanes to reduce dependency on road freight and its associated cost volatility.

ABOUT US

At Wiima Logistics, we specialize in global logistics solutions that go beyond transport. As a 4PL partner, we help companies take control of their supply chains through tailored consulting, outsourced logistics management, and smart digital tools.

Our expertise spans everything from complex project logistics and marine deliveries to transport tenders and data-driven optimization. With a strong foothold in Europe and global reach, we serve companies looking for efficiency, transparency, and continuous improvement in logistics.

We don’t just move goods — we build better logistics.