Global Logistics Market Update: Navigating the Post-Peak Landscape in H2 2025

Executive Summary

The global logistics market in the second half of 2025 is defined by a significant and rapid correction following a tariff-induced peak in the first half of the year. Pervasive geopolitical uncertainty, dominated by the US-China trade conflict, is creating a high-stakes environment for supply chain decision-makers. This landscape is characterized by softening freight rates across all modes, persistent structural cost pressures that prevent a full return to pre-pandemic norms, and the looming challenge of systemic overcapacity, particularly in the ocean freight sector.

Key developments across the primary freight modes signal a complex and divergent market. In ocean freight, the market has undergone a rapid shift from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Spot rates on major East-West trade lanes have retreated to, and in some cases fallen below, pre-Red Sea crisis levels. The critical factor determining the rate floor for the remainder of the year will be the ocean carriers’ ability to maintain capacity discipline through blank sailings and service adjustments in the face of weak underlying demand.

The air freight sector, while demonstrating resilience due to sustained, strong e-commerce demand, is navigating a major paradigm shift. The suspension of the United States’ “de minimis” rule for low-value shipments has fundamentally altered the economics of transpacific e-commerce trade flows. This is forcing a strategic re-evaluation of logistics models that have fueled much of the sector’s recent growth.

In European road freight, the market has reached an inflection point. Spot rates appear to be bottoming out amidst weak consumer demand and a fragile economic recovery. However, this superficial stability masks profound underlying structural issues, most notably a critical and worsening driver shortage and escalating operational costs. These factors signal a future capacity crunch and the high probability of significant rate volatility once demand returns.

For Finnish logistics decision-makers, the current environment demands a strategic pivot. The focus must move beyond short-term cost optimization toward the deliberate construction of long-term supply chain resilience. The imperative is to secure strategic partnerships with financially stable carriers and logistics providers, accelerate investment in end-to-end visibility technology to manage complexity, and proactively prepare for the tightening of sustainability regulations that will increasingly define market access and operational costs.

The Global Economic & Geopolitical Landscape: An Unsteady Foundation

The foundation upon which global logistics operates has become increasingly unsteady through 2025. A fractured global economy, characterized by slowing growth and persistent uncertainty, is directly constraining freight demand. This economic fragility is compounded by a geopolitical environment dominated by the escalating US-China trade conflict, creating a landscape where political deadlines, rather than market fundamentals, are the primary drivers of volatility.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators

The global economy presents a challenging picture for the logistics sector. Forecasts for global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2025 have been revised downwards, with the OECD now predicting a slowdown to +2.9%.(1) This sentiment is echoed by the World Economic Forum, which found that 56% of leading chief economists expect weaker global economic conditions in 2025. (2) This broad-based pessimism translates directly into cautious inventory strategies and reduced demand for freight services.

The Eurozone, a critical market for Finnish exports, is experiencing a particularly modest recovery. The European Commission has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast downwards to match the lackluster performance of 2024, citing the direct impact of trade tariffs and heightened uncertainty. (3) On a more positive note, inflation has stabilized around the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target, and recent interest rate cuts are expected to provide some support for a mild recovery in private consumption later in the year.(4) The US economy continues to show robust private consumption, but it faces significant downside risks from its own protectionist tariff policies, which could dampen growth and import demand.(6)

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) reflect this mixed and uncertain environment. The global manufacturing PMI rose above the 50-point growth threshold to 51.2 in June, indicating a slight rebound. However, the forward-looking new export orders sub-index remained in contractionary territory at 49.3, a clear signal of the chilling effect that recent trade policy shifts are having on global commerce.(7) The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, while still in contraction at 49.8 in July, showed its slowest rate of decline in three years, suggesting the sector may be approaching a turning point. (4)

The US-China Trade War: The Epicenter of Disruption

The renewal of trade hostilities between the United States and China, marked by the implementation and threat of widespread tariffs, has become the single most dominant force shaping logistics markets in 2025. These policies have created a dramatic “whiplash effect” on supply chains. The first half of the year saw a massive front-loading of shipments as importers rushed to move cargo ahead of tariff deadlines, leading to a temporary surge in volumes and rates. (8) This was followed by a sharp and immediate drop in import volumes in July and a forecast for a much weaker second half of the year as warehouses are overstocked and underlying consumer demand cannot sustain the artificial peak.

A particularly tectonic shift is the suspension of the “de minimis” exemption (Section 321) for low-value imports into the US, which became effective on August 29, 2025. This rule had allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free and was the bedrock upon which the high-volume, direct-to-consumer e-commerce model from Asia was built. Its removal fundamentally alters the cost structure for this segment, which has been a primary engine of air cargo growth.

The market is therefore not merely experiencing random volatility; it is caught in a “predictably unpredictable” cycle directly tethered to policy deadlines. The announcement of a 90-day extension of tariff pauses until early November has a temporary stabilizing effect, but it simultaneously prevents any form of long-term planning and sets the stage for another potential cargo rush in late October as shippers once again hedge against policy uncertainty.9 This dynamic fundamentally alters the nature of risk assessment for shippers. The primary variable for H2 2025 is not a purely economic factor, such as a drop in consumer demand, but a political one: the outcome of the November 10 tariff pause deadline.(9) This shifts the strategic focus for logistics managers from purely optimizing freight costs to actively managing political risk. It necessitates “what-if” scenario planning based on different tariff outcomes and elevates the need for logistics partners who can provide not just capacity, but also geopolitical intelligence and customs expertise. For Finnish companies, whose export-driven economy is highly sensitive to such external shocks, this transforms supply chain risk into a board-level concern.(14)

Persistent Geopolitical Flashpoints

Beyond the US-China trade conflict, other ongoing geopolitical flashpoints continue to add layers of cost, complexity, and risk to global supply chains. The Red Sea crisis, resulting from Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, has become a long-term structural disruption. It continues to force carriers on the critical Asia-Europe trade lane to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, a longer and more expensive route that stretches effective fleet capacity and extends transit times by over a week. (15) The threat escalated further in July 2025 with additional vessel attacks, broadening the perceived risk to a larger portion of the global fleet and ensuring that risk premiums and operational adjustments will remain in place for the foreseeable future. (17)

In the air, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has maintained its Conflict Zone Information Bulletin for airspace over parts of the Middle East, including Iran, Iraq, and Israel. This has forced air cargo carriers to alter routes, impacting transit times and operational costs on key trade lanes between Europe and Asia.(19)

Ocean Freight Market Analysis: Navigating Oversupply and Rate Volatility

The global ocean freight market has undergone a dramatic reversal in the second half of 2025. The artificial demand peak created by tariff front-loading has subsided, exposing weak underlying fundamentals and shifting market power decisively from carriers to shippers. The primary challenges now facing the industry are managing a wave of new vessel deliveries into a softening market and navigating the operational complexities of network disruptions and shifting carrier alliances.

Rate Dynamics: From Tariff-Driven Peaks to a Precipitous Fall

The ocean freight market experienced extreme rate volatility in the first half of 2025. Spot rates on major East-West trades surged from May through early June as shippers scrambled for space to move goods ahead of impending US tariffs. However, once those deadlines passed, the market saw a “huge decline” as the artificial demand vanished. (20)

By mid-August 2025, transpacific spot rates had collapsed, sliding back to levels seen before the Red Sea crisis began to impact the market.(21) According to Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI), rates for a 40ft container (FEU) from Shanghai to Los Angeles had fallen to $2,494, while rates to New York stood at $3,638.20 Data from Xeneta corroborated this trend, showing the Far East to US West Coast rate at $2,018 per FEU.(13) This represents a stunning reversal from the peaks seen just two months prior.

Rates on the Asia-Europe trade lane have also softened considerably. In mid-August, the spot rate from the Far East to North Europe was approximately $3,247 per FEU, down significantly from earlier highs. Carriers and analysts expect further downward pressure on this lane as well, as a muted peak season fails to absorb excess capacity. The overall outlook for the remainder of 2025 is for continued rate contraction. The early peak season, driven by tariffs rather than genuine consumer demand, has effectively pulled forward volumes, leaving a void that is unlikely to be filled in the traditional Q3 peak period. This will keep rates under pressure as carriers compete for limited cargo. (20)

The Capacity Conundrum: A Flood of New Vessels Meets Weak Demand

The core structural challenge confronting ocean carriers is the massive influx of new vessel capacity that was ordered during the pandemic-era shipping boom. These large, modern container ships are now being delivered into a weakening market, creating a severe supply-demand imbalance. The global container fleet is projected to grow by a substantial 8% in 2025, while global container demand is only expected to grow by a meager 3%. (24) This delta represents a significant volume of excess capacity that will weigh heavily on the market. An additional one million TEU of new capacity was scheduled to enter the market in the second half of 2024 alone, further exacerbating the situation. (16)

In response, carriers have been forced to aggressively manage this oversupply through extensive blank (cancelled) sailing programs. In the period following the Chinese New Year, blank sailings on the Far East to North Europe routes were predicted to surge by an astounding 449%. (25) This strategy of artificially withdrawing capacity remains the primary tool for carriers to establish a floor under falling rates and prevent a total market collapse. (24) For shippers, this creates a challenging paradox: while the global fleet is larger than ever, available slot capacity on any given week is artificially constrained and unpredictable, which in turn negatively impacts schedule reliability and supply chain planning.

Operational Headwinds: Congestion, Reliability, and Shifting Alliances

Despite the softening demand, operational challenges persist. Port congestion remains a stubborn issue in several key hubs, particularly in Europe. The Port of Antwerp-Bruges, for example, saw its total throughput decrease by 4.3% in the first half of 2025 and continues to struggle with high yard density and labor availability, leading to vessel waiting times. (11)

Overall schedule reliability remains poor across the industry. While new carrier alliances, such as the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, are aiming for ambitious reliability targets of over 90%, the industry-wide average has fluctuated between a much lower 50% and 60%. (17) The ongoing diversions away from the Red Sea have worsened this metric, increasing the average days of delay for late vessel arrivals. (24) Furthermore, the significant recomposition of the major carrier alliances in the first quarter of 2025 is continuing to reshape service networks and sailing schedules, adding another layer of complexity for shippers to navigate as they adjust to new rotations and transit times. (15)

The current market dynamics are fostering the emergence of a “two-tier” reliability system. Carriers are facing immense financial pressure from the combination of falling rates and structural overcapacity. (23) Their main defense is aggressive capacity management through blank sailings. (25) At the same time, major carriers are marketing their new alliances with explicit promises of higher reliability as a key service differentiator. (17) To deliver on this promise for their premium, long-term contract customers, they must inevitably prioritize that cargo. This means that during periods of network disruption or on overbooked vessels, it will be the lower-yielding, short-term spot market cargo that is most likely to be rolled over to a later sailing. For a Finnish exporter of high-value industrial goods, where supply chain predictability is paramount, this implies that the cheapest freight rate is seldom the best value. The total cost of unreliability—encompassing potential production line stoppages, missed customer delivery deadlines, and reputational damage—can far outweigh any marginal savings on freight. The most prudent strategy is therefore to segment cargo: utilize the volatile spot market for non-critical shipments but secure stable, reliable capacity for mission-critical supply chains through strategic, long-term partnerships with core carriers.

Data sourced from reports dated mid-August 2025. (13) Rate changes are calculated from peaks in early-to-mid June 2025.

Air Freight Market Analysis: E-commerce Resilience Amidst Shifting Trade Winds

The global air cargo market in 2025 has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with demand consistently outperforming early-year expectations. This strength has been almost entirely fueled by the relentless growth of cross-border e-commerce. However, the sector is now confronting a significant headwind in the form of US trade policy changes that directly challenge the viability of established e-commerce logistics models, leading to a slowdown in growth and a strategic re-evaluation of transpacific supply chains.

Demand & Rate Volatility: The Enduring Influence of E-commerce

The air cargo market’s performance has been a story of two halves. The period leading into mid-2024 was exceptionally strong, with the market recording eight consecutive months of double-digit, year-on-year demand growth. This surge was overwhelmingly attributed to B2C e-commerce, with Asia’s sustained expansion in this sector serving as the primary engine. (16)

However, data from mid-2025 reveals a significant deceleration. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), grew by a mere 0.8% year-on-year in June. This slowdown is a direct consequence of the new US tariffs and trade uncertainties that have disrupted established cargo flows. (7) The regional divergence behind this headline number is stark: Asia-Pacific carriers, still benefiting from strong regional e-commerce, bucked the trend with a robust 9.0% growth, while North American carriers, at the epicenter of the trade policy changes, experienced a sharp 8.3% contraction. (19) In response to this cooling environment, IATA has revised its full-year 2025 air cargo forecast downwards, citing the combined impact of slowing global GDP growth and protectionist trade measures. (30)

Capacity & Yields: A Balancing Act

On the supply side, capacity has been steadily returning to the market, primarily through the restoration of belly-hold space on passenger aircraft, which has now returned to pre-pandemic levels. (25) Global available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK) grew by 1.7% year-on-year in June 2025. This growth in capacity slightly outpaced the growth in demand, leading to a marginal decrease in the global Cargo Load Factor (CLF) to 45.5%. (19)

Despite the increase in available space, airfreight rates have remained remarkably firm, particularly on routes originating from Asia. This is due to the persistent strength of time-sensitive e-commerce demand and some modal shift from ocean freight, which has been plagued by schedule unreliability. (15) Global average airfreight rates were still 5% higher year-on-year in early 2025. (25) Looking forward, however, the consensus is that cargo yields will soften. IATA forecasts a 5.2% decline in yields for the full year 2025, reflecting the dual pressures of slowing demand growth and expanding capacity. (30)

The “De Minimis” Effect: A Paradigm Shift for Transpacific Air Cargo

The most significant new development impacting the air cargo sector in 2025 is the suspension of the US Section 321 “de minimis” rule. This policy, which allowed for the duty-free entry of shipments valued at less than $800, was the cornerstone of the high-volume, low-value e-commerce logistics model that has been a primary driver of transpacific air freight growth. Its removal, effective August 29, 2025, represents a fundamental and disruptive shift. (1)

The market impact was immediate and severe. Following the policy announcement, the Asia-North America air cargo trade lane contracted by 10.7% in May and a further 4.8% in June. This policy change is forcing a complete strategic rethink among e-commerce shippers and their logistics partners. The previous model of flying vast quantities of individual small parcels directly from China to US consumers is no longer economically viable, as each parcel now requires formal customs entry and is subject to duties. (10) In response, companies are actively exploring alternative fulfillment models, such as using Mexico and Canada as near-shore distribution hubs from which to serve the US market, thereby changing the geography of air cargo demand. (12)

This end of the “de minimis” era will fragment the air cargo market. The previous simple model of flying parcels directly from China to US consumers is now broken due to the prohibitive cost and complexity of managing millions of individual customs entries. A logical alternative is to consolidate larger shipments into a nearby country like Mexico, perform a single, efficient customs clearance for the bulk shipment into that market, and then manage regional fulfillment and last-mile delivery into the US from that near-shore hub. This creates a new, high-demand niche for integrated logistics providers who can orchestrate this complex, multi-stage solution. It signals a potential boom for air cargo capacity into Mexico and a corresponding structural shift in demand away from direct China-US routes. For Finnish companies, this development underscores the increasing strategic importance of a logistics partner’s capabilities in customs brokerage and trade compliance, which are now as critical as their ability to simply transport goods.

Data based on IATA market analysis for June 2025, year-on-year (YoY) changes. (7) Some capacity figures are for international operations only.

European Road Freight Analysis: A Market at a Crossroads

The European road freight market has reached a critical inflection point in 2025. After a prolonged period of decline from the historic peaks seen during the pandemic, spot rates are now showing signs of stabilization. However, this apparent calm is deceptive, as it is occurring within a high-cost operating environment and masks deep-seated structural challenges—most notably a severe driver shortage and new regulatory burdens—that are eroding the sector’s capacity base and setting the stage for future volatility.

Rate Stabilization and Persistent Cost Pressures

The downward trend in European road freight rates that characterized the past three years appears to be bottoming out. The European Road Freight Spot Rate Benchmark Index for Q1 2025 fell by 3.8 points from the previous quarter to 134, reflecting weak post-holiday demand. (3) Contract rates also saw a decline in the same period. However, market analysts widely believe that this “bottoming-out process” is nearing its completion, with the consensus forecast being for stable to slightly rising rates through the remainder of the year.

This rate stabilization is occurring despite a backdrop of subdued consumer demand across the Eurozone, which has kept a lid on freight volumes. (31) At the same time, carriers are grappling with an operating environment characterized by high and rising costs. Diesel prices, a key cost component, rose by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2025. Furthermore, driver wages continue to climb due to labor shortages, with transport employee wages across the EU rising by 4.5% year-on-year in Q1. The implementation of new and revised road toll schemes in several countries is adding further to the financial burden on transport operators. (33)

Structural Challenges: The Deepening Driver Shortage and New Regulations

The market is contending with profound structural problems that will define its capacity and cost structure for years to come. The most critical of these is the deepening shortage of professional truck drivers. Across Europe, there is an estimated shortfall of 426,000 drivers. (31) This is not a cyclical issue but a demographic one, with an aging driver population and insufficient new entrants to the profession. Projections indicate that the number of unfilled positions could exceed 60% of the required workforce by 2026, pointing towards a long-term capacity crisis. The United Kingdom is facing a similar challenge, with a deficit of around 50,000 HGV drivers, a situation exacerbated by an aging workforce where 55% of drivers are between 50 and 65 years old. (17)

This labor crisis is compounded by a wave of new EU regulations that are adding both cost and complexity to operations. A significant deadline is August 18, 2025, by which all vehicles used in international road transport must be upgraded to the Smart Tachograph Version 2. This new device, which includes GPS tracking, represents a considerable capital investment for carriers. Additionally, the expansion of the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) to the maritime sector is having a knock-on effect on road hauliers who rely on roll-on/roll-off ferry services, as these ETS-related charges are being passed down the supply chain. (35)

The current low-rate environment in the European road freight market should be viewed as a “false dawn” by shippers. The surface-level stability, driven by weak demand, is masking a brewing and severe capacity crisis. The confluence of the critical driver shortage, escalating operating costs, and a rising number of carrier bankruptcies, particularly among smaller firms, is actively eroding the available supply base. (32) Economic forecasts, while cautious, predict an eventual recovery in consumer spending and broader economic activity in the medium term. (31) When this renewed demand inevitably meets the structurally weakened and diminished supply base, the basic laws of economics dictate that freight rates will experience a sharp, rapid, and severe spike. Shippers who are currently focused solely on securing the lowest possible spot rates are therefore engaging in a high-risk strategy. The more prudent approach for Finnish companies is to use this period of relative market calm to lock in longer-term contracts with financially stable, core carrier partners. This strategy prioritizes the security of future capacity and rate stability over the capture of minimal short-term savings, effectively serving as an insurance policy against the inevitable and potentially disruptive market reversal.

Emerging Strategic Imperatives for 2025 and Beyond

The turbulent market conditions of 2025 have crystallized a set of strategic imperatives for logistics and supply chain leaders. The constant threat of disruption has accelerated the adoption of digital technologies, elevated sustainability from a corporate social responsibility issue to a core business driver, and shifted the ultimate goal of supply chain management from simple resilience to a more ambitious state of “anti-fragility.”

The Digital Mandate: From Visibility to Predictive Intelligence

The business case for digitalization is no longer in question; it is a prerequisite for survival and competitiveness. The focus within the industry is rapidly shifting beyond simple track-and-trace visibility towards leveraging advanced technologies to generate predictive and prescriptive insights. Companies are increasingly prioritizing the implementation of AI-driven supply chain intelligence platforms to improve demand forecasting, optimize inventory levels, and enhance route planning. (15)

End-to-end visibility platforms and integrated “control tower” solutions are becoming strategic necessities. These systems aggregate real-time data from across the supply chain, enabling managers to monitor performance, receive automated alerts about potential disruptions, and conduct what-if scenario analysis to make more informed decisions.10 Furthermore, the concept of hyperautomation, which combines Artificial Intelligence (AI) with Robotic Process Automation (RPA), is gaining traction. This approach is being used to streamline and error-proof complex back-office functions such as freight invoice auditing, customs clearance documentation, and contract management, freeing up human capital for higher-value strategic tasks. (36)

Sustainability as a Core Business Driver

Environmental regulations and stakeholder expectations are transforming sustainability from a peripheral concern into a central factor in logistics planning, cost structures, and market access. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is beginning to directly impact supply chains for carbon-intensive goods like steel and aluminum, requiring importers to accurately report the embedded emissions in their products. (17)

Simultaneously, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to cover the maritime sector means that carbon emissions from shipping are now a direct and quantifiable cost. These charges are being passed on to customers in the form of surcharges, making the carbon footprint of a supply chain a tangible line item on the freight invoice. This is driving a growing demand for green logistics solutions, including the use of biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). However, the adoption of these alternatives currently faces significant challenges related to limited supply, high cost, and competition for biomass resources from other sectors.

From Resilience to Anti-Fragility: Architecting Future-Proof Supply Chains

The relentless disruptions of recent years have taught the market a crucial lesson: disruption is the new normal. In response, the strategic objective is evolving. The goal is no longer simply to be resilient—defined as the ability to bounce back from a shock—but to become “anti-fragile,” a concept that describes a system’s ability to actually get stronger and more capable as a result of being exposed to stressors and volatility.

Achieving this state requires a deliberate focus on supply chain diversification to reduce reliance on single sources or routes, proactive and data-driven risk management, and the construction of flexible, adaptable networks that can be reconfigured quickly in response to changing conditions. This shift is also elevating the role of sophisticated logistics partners, particularly Fourth-Party Logistics (4PL) providers. Their function is moving beyond day-to-day execution to that of a strategic advisor, helping clients to anticipate emerging risks, analyze network vulnerabilities, and design more robust and anti-fragile supply chain architectures.

These three imperatives—Digital, Sustainable, and Resilient—are not separate, isolated trends. They are deeply interconnected and mutually reinforcing. A truly resilient supply chain in the modern era must, by necessity, be both digital and sustainable. To achieve resilience, a company requires deep visibility into every tier of its supply chain, a capability that is fundamentally digital. (37) To comply with new sustainability regulations like CBAM, that same company needs to accurately track, measure, and report emissions data throughout its entire value chain, which again requires digital tools and end-to-end visibility. Managing the physical risks of climate change, such as extreme weather events disrupting ports and transport routes, is now a core component of resilience planning, and this requires a long-term commitment to sustainable practices. Therefore, an investment in a digital control tower platform is not just an efficiency play; it is simultaneously a resilience investment and a critical tool for sustainability compliance. For Finnish decision-makers, the most effective path forward is an integrated strategy where investments in digital platforms are justified by their ability to deliver on all three fronts: improving operational efficiency, ensuring compliance with new green regulations, and providing the intelligence needed to navigate future disruptions.

The Finnish Perspective: Navigating Global Trends in a Nordic Context

The Finnish economy and its logistics sector are intrinsically linked to the global trends outlined in this report. As a highly open, export-driven economy, Finland is particularly sensitive to shifts in global trade policy, demand fluctuations in key markets, and disruptions to international freight networks. The current environment presents a complex mix of challenges and opportunities for Finnish businesses.

Finland’s Economic Outlook and Foreign Trade Performance

The Finnish economy is navigating a challenging period, with the anticipated recovery being hampered by the uncertain and volatile global environment. Consensus forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 are weak, clustering in the 0.5% to 1.0% range. (5) A significant headwind is the pervasive uncertainty over international trade policy, which erodes business confidence and acts as a brake on corporate investment. (39)

The export sector, the lifeblood of the Finnish economy, is forecast to see only minor growth in 2025. The weak economic performance of the Eurozone, Finland’s largest trading partner, is a major drag on the demand for Finnish goods. (14) Foreign trade statistics from the first half of 2025 paint a mixed and volatile picture. The value and volume of goods exports (tavaravienti) have fluctuated significantly from month to month, lacking a clear positive trend. (40) Meanwhile, services exports (palveluiden vienti) declined in both the first and second quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year. (42)

The technology industry, a cornerstone of Finnish exports, faces a particularly difficult situation. It is contending with weak demand from its core European markets, although the US market has remained a relative bright spot, providing some offsetting demand.

Local Logistics Market Dynamics

Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, the domestic logistics market, particularly in real estate, has shown resilience and remains attractive for investment. The industrial and logistics (I&L) real estate sector recorded €154 million in investment volume in the second quarter of 2025. The prime yield in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) has remained stable at 5.40%, indicating continued investor confidence in high-quality assets. (44)

Demand for modern logistics and light industrial premises in prime locations remains high. This demand is being driven by structural trends such as the continued growth of e-commerce, which has led to low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rental rates for desirable properties. There is a significant pipeline of new logistics construction in the Helsinki region, with an estimated 185,000 square meters scheduled for completion in 2025-2026. The majority of these developments are on a build-to-suit basis, reflecting specific occupier demand rather than speculative building.

Discussions within the Finnish logistics community, such as those planned for industry forums, highlight a strong local focus on key global themes. These include accelerating digitalization, with a specific emphasis on implementing the eFTI (electronic Freight Transport Information) regulation, enhancing sustainability in export logistics, and improving the integration of different transport modes—including road, rail, and inland waterways—to create more efficient and resilient domestic supply chains. (46)

Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations for Finnish Logistics Decision-Makers

The global logistics landscape in the second half of 2025 is one of heightened risk and complexity, but also one that presents opportunities for well-prepared organizations. The market has clearly shifted from a period of acute capacity shortages and soaring rates to one characterized by softening demand and emerging overcapacity. However, this is not a return to a simple, low-cost environment. The underlying structural issues of geopolitical instability, rising operational costs, labor shortages, and tightening environmental regulations create a new and challenging set of variables. For Finnish logistics leaders, successfully navigating this environment requires a move away from purely transactional procurement towards a more strategic, risk-aware, and technologically enabled approach to supply chain management.

Based on the comprehensive analysis presented in this report, the following strategic recommendations are offered:

1. Embrace Proactive Risk Management and Scenario Planning: The current market is driven more by political deadlines and geopolitical events than by traditional economic fundamentals. Given Finland’s high dependence on foreign trade, companies must move beyond reactive responses to disruption. This requires investing in robust scenario planning capabilities to model the potential impacts of different trade policy outcomes (e.g., further tariffs, shifting regulations). It also means prioritizing logistics partners who offer strong advisory services on trade compliance, customs brokerage, and geopolitical risk mitigation, treating them as sources of critical intelligence, not just transportation capacity.

2. Diversify Carrier Relationships and Secure Core Capacity: In the current ocean and European road freight markets, an over-reliance on the volatile spot market represents a significant long-term risk. The apparent low rates mask a shrinking and fragile capacity base. Decision-makers should strategically segment their freight flows. For critical, time-sensitive supply chains, the priority should be to use this period of relative market softness to negotiate and secure longer-term, stable contracts with financially sound, core carrier partners. This approach trades minimal short-term savings for the invaluable security of future capacity and rate stability. The more transactional spot market can then be used for less critical, more flexible cargo.

3. Leverage Finland’s Digital Advantage for Supply Chain Competitiveness: Finland is a global leader in technology and digital innovation. This national strength should be leveraged within corporate logistics functions. Leaders should champion investments in digital visibility platforms, AI-driven planning tools, and automation. The business case for these investments is threefold: they drive immediate operational efficiency, they are essential for ensuring compliance with increasingly data-intensive EU sustainability reporting requirements like CBAM and ETS, and they provide the end-to-end visibility that is the foundation of a truly resilient supply chain.

4. Shift Procurement Focus from Freight Rate to Total Landed Cost: The analysis clearly shows that disruptions, delays, customs complexities, and compliance failures are now major, and often hidden, cost drivers. Logistics procurement strategies must evolve accordingly. The evaluation of logistics partners must move beyond a narrow focus on the per-container or per-kilo rate. A more sophisticated “total cost of ownership” model should be adopted, which assesses partners on their schedule reliability, technological capabilities, data quality, sustainability solutions, and risk management expertise. In the current landscape, the most resilient and ultimately lowest-cost supply chain will be the one that is the most predictable and compliant, not necessarily the one with the cheapest headline freight rate.

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