AIR FREIGHT
The airfreight sector has witnessed a transformative year, with 2024 shaping its trajectory for 2025 and beyond. A booming global parcel delivery market, driven by Asia’s sustained growth in e-commerce and advancing logistics solutions, has highlighted the importance of airfreight in the worldwide supply chain. From 2020 to now, the global parcel delivery market has demonstrated a 5% CAGR, with projections reaching €700 billion by 2028. Asia Pacific remains the largest contributor, with a remarkable 7.5% growth rate, fueling the airfreight sector’s expansion.
Simultaneously, the elongated December peak season has provided a surprising twist, as contract rates for 2025 increased by approximately 10% for long-haul and intra-Asian routes. Consumer electronics and general cargo have extended the peak period well into January, highlighting evolving trends in shippers’ strategies to optimize capacity and costs. However, this rise in rates is still modest compared to 2023, signaling a maturing market that balances demand with stability.
Taiwan has emerged as a focal point, driven by semiconductor and electronics trade with China. Geopolitical factors such as potential U.S. tariffs have spurred front-loading and increased demand. Despite this growth, capacity constraints, flight cancellations, and geopolitical tensions continue to create bottlenecks, particularly on North China to U.S. lanes and Asia-Europe routes. Freighters have canceled flights, citing a lack of crew and operational challenges, tightening space and pushing rates upward.
The 2025 forecasts remain cautious yet optimistic. The 13 consecutive months of double-digit year-on-year growth in air cargo volumes reflect the sector’s resilience, backed by e-commerce and supply chain disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis. However, concerns about tariff changes, potential strikes at U.S. ports, and global trade dynamics underscore the industry’s vulnerability to external shocks.
As airlines and shippers try to manage fluctuating rates, short-term contracts, and operational challenges, transparency, and data-driven insights will be critical levers in 2025.
ROAD FREIGHT
The road freight sector is driving the call for a modernized and harmonized EU customs framework. With 85% of road freight operators being SMEs, inconsistent customs procedures across Member States disproportionately impact the sector, causing delays and unnecessary penalties.
Streamlining and digitalizing customs systems is crucial to ensuring the EU’s borders facilitate trade rather than hinder it. With the 2016 customs legislation deadline approaching in December 2025, delays in IT system developments pose risks to its full implementation. The coalition is pressing legislators to address these challenges and ensure alignment with global frameworks like eTIR to boost international trade efficiency.
A modern, unified customs system would reduce barriers and strengthen the EU’s global competitiveness. By collaborating closely with private sector stakeholders, the EU can lead by example in building an efficient, digitally interoperable customs union that supports SMEs, simplifies trade, and secures its position as a global leader in trade facilitation.
SEA FREIGHT
The sea freight sector remains as dynamic as air but much more challenging space as 2024 ends. The global container shipping fleet grew by 10.6% over 2023, adding 2.92 million teu of new capacity. Notably, Asia-Europe routes saw a sharp 31% rise in fleet capacity, with nearly 59% of new tonnage deployed here, attributed mainly to the ongoing disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis. The crisis has extended sailing distances, requiring more vessels to maintain schedules and consequently limiting the actual weekly capacity growth on Asia-Europe lanes to just 8.8%.
In contrast, Asia-North America routes only experienced a 2.9% capacity increase in 2024, despite strong U.S. import demand, showcasing the strain on global vessel availability. This demand-supply imbalance ensured that freight rates remained elevated, making 2024 one of the most profitable years for carriers post-pandemic, with minimal idle tonnage—just 0.6% of the global fleet.
Latin America also emerged as a region to watch, with services to and from the region expanding significantly. Approximately 22.4% of the year’s capacity additions—853,000 teu—were allocated to Latin America-related trades, fueling a 10.4% rise in Asia-Latin America volumes over the first nine months of the year.
However, the coming months could see volatility in U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports due to potential labor disruptions. Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) remain stalled, with automation as the primary sticking point. If no resolution is reached before the expiration of the current master contract on 15 January, a coast-wide strike could begin on 16 January, disrupting port operations.
Carriers like Maersk have urged shippers to proactively clear containers from these ports before the deadline to mitigate potential delays. Contingency plans, including surcharges, are being prepared. Hapag-Lloyd, for instance, announced $850 per teu surcharges for imports to East and Gulf Coast ports starting 20 January, applicable to cargo gated in on or after that date. Such disruptions could ripple through global trade, adding pressure to already tight supply chains.
WIIMA remains committed to providing solutions tailored to these evolving changes, ensuring smooth operations for its clients.
RAIL FREIGHT
The rail freight sector in Europe continues to face both opportunities and challenges. In Ukraine, rail freight remains critical for the country’s logistics amid ongoing war-induced disruptions. Ukrainian Railways (UR) announced a 37% tariff increase, its first since 2022, to cope with the rising costs of maintenance, energy, and fuel. These hikes are vital for ensuring safety standards and financing critical infrastructure repairs, mainly as the country relies heavily on its rail system due to blocked maritime corridors. However, Ukraine’s rail dependence has exposed weaknesses, including mismatched gauges inherited from Soviet infrastructure. Investment in modernizing tracks could unlock greater trade potential with Western Europe.
In France, the historic state-owned rail freight company, Fret SNCF, has officially been retired, giving way to two newly established entities—Hexafret and Technis. Hexafret now handles operations, focusing on groupage and single-wagon services, while Technis specializes in locomotive maintenance. While these changes mark a significant transformation for SNCF’s rail freight operations, some experts caution that Hexafret’s limited operational scope and reliance on state subsidies could pose challenges. However, with its extensive nationwide network and groupage services, Hexafret remains optimistic about its ability to meet demand and maintain profitability.
Meanwhile, Estonia’s recent sale of its former state-owned rail operator, Operail, to private hands reflects a shift in strategy. With rail freight volumes having declined sharply since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the new owner, Tiigi Keskus, aims to revitalize container transport and support national climate goals by increasing rail’s share of freight over highways. This privatization emphasizes a growing trend in Europe, where governments seek to reduce public spending on rail maintenance while encouraging private investment to bolster capacity and efficiency.
In the UK, rail freight showed signs of recovery, with intermodal maritime volumes rising 4% year-on-year in the quarter ending September 2024. Non-maritime freight also saw an 11% increase. Efforts by operators like DP World to incentivize shippers to use rail services, such as new routes between Tilbury and Manchester, have begun to pay off. Rail accounted for 38% of all UK freight during the period, highlighting its growing importance in the logistics mix.
However, challenges persist. On New Year’s Day, severe flooding in the UK’s North West caused significant disruptions to rail operations. Waterlogged tracks and damaged ballast forced widespread service cancellations, particularly in Greater Manchester and Warrington. Rapid repair efforts helped restore key routes, but the incident underscores the need for greater investment in climate resilience for rail infrastructure. Similar climate-related vulnerabilities were echoed in a European Commission (EC) study, which stressed the urgency of integrating climate adaptation into the EU’s TEN-T transport policy. The EC has called for enhanced public investment to future-proof cross-border rail infrastructure, warning that extreme weather events could severely disrupt transportation networks and supply chains without immediate action.
With tailored 4PL solutions, WIIMA can help businesses navigate these complexities, ensuring smooth, sustainable, and efficient rail freight operations across Europe.
ABOUT US
Wiima Logistics is a provider of fourth-party logistics (4PL) services. The 4PL service provides the customer with a complete solution for supply chain management, administration and outsourcing.
4PL operations can be described as outsourcing the management and coordination of the entire supply chain – this allows the customer to focus on their core business.
Wiima staff will be more than happy to advise you in supply chain and logistics related matters. Our logistics experts and digital tools will provide you with a winning combination if you are looking for an effective and efficient logistics management setup.
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